What Barcelona need on final matchday to avoid Champions League playoff

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Picture shows FC Barcelona's badge displayed on a wall of the Camp Nou stadium in Barcelona.
Photo by JOSEP LAGO/AFP via Getty Images

FC Barcelona kept their Champions League hopes firmly alive with a crucial 4-2 victory over Slavia Praha, a result that leaves Hansi Flick’s side with their destiny largely in their own hands heading into the final matchday of the league phase.

The Blaugranes had to work hard in Prague after conceding twice from corner kicks in the first half. Fermin Lopez struck twice to level the contest before the break, and second-half goals from Dani Olmo and Robert Lewandowski completed the comeback and secured three vital points.

Following this win and a series of favourable results elsewhere, Barcelona sit 9th in the standings on 13 points, just outside the top eight places that grant direct qualification to the round of 16. Manchester City’s defeat to Bodø Glimt, Athletic Club’s win over Atalanta, and Atlético Madrid’s draw with Galatasaray all helped keep the door open for the Catalan side, with qualification scenarios now being closely monitored by fans, analysts, and betting platforms such as NonStopCasino.co.uk ahead of a dramatic final round.

Eight teams are currently level on 13 points, making the final round a decisive shootout. PSG sit 6th, followed by Newcastle United, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and Atalanta.

Goal difference is likely to be the key factor, with Barça currently on +5. That leaves the Catalans behind PSG and Newcastle, both on +10, and Chelsea on +6. Sporting are level with Barcelona on goal difference, while City sit on +4, Atlético on +3, and Atalanta on +1.

Crucially, PSG and Newcastle face each other on the final matchday, guaranteeing that at least one of the two will drop points. If Barcelona defeat Copenhagen at the Spotify Camp Nou, they will put significant pressure on the rest of the chasing pack and have a strong chance of moving into the top eight, provided their goal difference is not overtaken.

Sporting CP travel to face Athletic Club, Manchester City host Galatasaray, Chelsea visit Napoli, Atlético Madrid play Bodø Glimt, and Atalanta face Union Saint Gilloise. Barcelona must not only win but also remain attentive to the scorelines elsewhere, particularly those involving Sporting and City.

There is also a slim chance Barça could climb even higher. Teams currently ahead on points, such as Tottenham on 14 and Liverpool and Real Madrid on 15, still face challenging fixtures against Eintracht Frankfurt, Qarabag, and Benfica, respectively. Any dropped points there could open the door for Flick’s side to leapfrog them with a strong win.

For Barcelona, the equation is clear. Beat Copenhagen at home, push their goal difference as high as possible, and hope the margins elsewhere fall their way. After surviving a scare in Prague, the Catalans now have one final chance to avoid the playoff round and secure direct passage to the Champions League last 16.